FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

719.75 – 484.62

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

641 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 86.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 983.4 ±8.7

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 365.29Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 122Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 232.46Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 754.9 ±9.3

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 118.67Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 194.48Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 171.47Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 8119, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

719.8 pts

~2.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4414, 8119, 3476

Auto

162.5 23%

Teleop

385.4 54%

Endgame

166.1 23%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9452, 3255, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

484.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9452, 3255, 2659

Auto

74.8 16%

Teleop

257.7 54%

Endgame

143.1 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.91 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score719.8pts

Blue projected score484.6pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 235.1
Score range: 425–780
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1031 vs event baseline 334.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

983.4Season APEX754.9

162.5Auto74.8

385.4Teleop257.7

166.1Endgame143.1

59Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	165	44
teleop	283	217
endgame	183	129
foul	10	0
total	641	390

Result

Final score

641 – 390

Prediction correct · off by 86.7 pts

Match videos

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