FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

414.2 – 405.06

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

609 – 551

Prediction correct · off by 170.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 749.5 ±8.7

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 122.74Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 138.01Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 153.45Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 737.4 ±9.3

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 163.41Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 127.02Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 114.63Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5199, 4201, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

414.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5199, 4201, 4322

Auto

85.9 21%

Teleop

229.0 57%

Endgame

85.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 599, 9408, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 599, 9408, 696

Auto

98.2 25%

Teleop

227.3 57%

Endgame

71.6 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.06 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score414.2pts

Blue projected score405.1pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 71%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.1
Score range: 345–474
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1160 vs event baseline 330.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

749.5Season APEX737.4

85.9Auto98.2

229Teleop227.3

85.2Endgame71.6

72Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	124	104
teleop	327	286
endgame	143	161
foul	15	0
total	609	551

Result

Final score

609 – 551

Prediction correct · off by 170.4 pts

Match videos

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