FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

548.09 – 426.28

82%18%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

522 – 556

Prediction missed · off by 77.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 843.6 ±8.7

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 112.95Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 250.97Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 184.17Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 837.2 ±8.7

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 155.32Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 151.64Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 119.32Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 687, 1538, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

548.1 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 687, 1538, 973

Auto

101.0 19%

Teleop

307.1 57%

Endgame

129.9 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9084, 7415, 3128

/ 100 compat

Projected

426.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9084, 7415, 3128

Auto

109.5 27%

Teleop

224.2 55%

Endgame

75.2 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 38%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.6 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score548.1pts

Blue projected score426.3pts

Red win probability82%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 38%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 121.8
Score range: 367–607
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1078 vs event baseline 329.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

843.6Season APEX837.2

101Auto109.5

307.1Teleop224.2

129.9Endgame75.2

65Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	136	126
teleop	247	252
endgame	134	173
foul	5	5
total	522	556

Result

Final score

522 – 556

Prediction missed · off by 77.9 pts

Match videos

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