FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

405.32 – 467.5

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

267 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 156.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 707.3 ±9.3

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 100.26Rank 19Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 141.31Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 163.75Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±9.8

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 73.12Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 205.33Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 189.05Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2637, 6995, 294

/ 100 compat

Projected

405.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2637, 6995, 294

Auto

84.6 21%

Teleop

223.2 56%

Endgame

91.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1197, 1388, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

467.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1197, 1388, 2102

Auto

79.9 19%

Teleop

217.8 51%

Endgame

129.0 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.73 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score405.3pts

Blue projected score467.5pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -62.2
Score range: 346–527
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 559 vs event baseline 329.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

707.3Season APEX540.5

84.6Auto79.9

223.2Teleop217.8

91.4Endgame129

113Consistency142

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	46
teleop	129	157
endgame	59	84
foul	10	5
total	267	292

Result

Final score

267 – 292

Prediction correct · off by 156.9 pts

Match videos

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