FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

437.4 – 477.07

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

299 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 81.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 737.4 ±9.3

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 174.96Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 136.01Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 126.43Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 754.9 ±9.3

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 115.27Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 192.56Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 169.24Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 599, 9408, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

437.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 599, 9408, 696

Auto

97.3 23%

Teleop

249.2 58%

Endgame

81.1 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9452, 3255, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

477.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9452, 3255, 2659

Auto

70.5 15%

Teleop

262.7 56%

Endgame

133.3 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 71%

Supercharged: 41%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 2.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score437.4pts

Blue projected score477.1pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 71%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 41%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.7
Score range: 378–536
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 800 vs event baseline 329.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

737.4Season APEX754.9

97.3Auto70.5

249.2Teleop262.7

81.1Endgame133.3

119Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	93
teleop	146	224
endgame	47	184
foul	0	0
total	299	501

Result

Final score

299 – 501

Prediction correct · off by 81.2 pts