FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

708.87 – 416.67

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

746 – 487

Prediction correct · off by 53.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 983.4 ±8.7

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 364.14Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 118.55Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 226.18Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 660.3 ±9.3

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 116.09Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 151.44Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 149.14Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 8119, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

708.9 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4414, 8119, 3476

Auto

164.0 23%

Teleop

371.3 53%

Endgame

166.6 24%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5199, 5474, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

416.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5199, 5474, 4322

Auto

90.0 22%

Teleop

238.5 58%

Endgame

80.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 36%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.96 · Blue 1.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score708.9pts

Blue projected score416.7pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 292.2
Score range: 358–768
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1233 vs event baseline 326.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

983.4Season APEX660.3

164Auto90

371.3Teleop238.5

166.6Endgame80.3

102Consistency104

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	156	120
teleop	423	246
endgame	167	121
foul	0	0
total	746	487

Result

Final score

746 – 487

Prediction correct · off by 53.7 pts

Match videos

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