FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

477.72 – 541.32

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

543 – 516

Prediction missed · off by 45.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 837.2 ±8.7

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 171.34Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 169.97Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 136.41Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 843.6 ±8.7

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 110.44Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 250.04Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 180.84Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9084, 7415, 3128

/ 100 compat

Projected

477.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9084, 7415, 3128

Auto

113.0 25%

Teleop

234.7 51%

Endgame

112.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 687, 1538, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

541.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 687, 1538, 973

Auto

115.9 22%

Teleop

284.8 54%

Endgame

128.3 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.45 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score477.7pts

Blue projected score541.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -63.6
Score range: 417–602
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1059 vs event baseline 339.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

837.2Season APEX843.6

113Auto115.9

234.7Teleop284.8

112.3Endgame128.3

59Consistency71

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	136
teleop	263	325
endgame	164	45
foul	5	10
total	543	516

Result

Final score

543 – 516

Prediction missed · off by 45.3 pts

Match videos

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