FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

446.15 – 543.92

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 522

Prediction correct · off by 234 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 749.5 ±8.7

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 131.63Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 152.62Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 161.9Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 843.6 ±8.7

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 111.93Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 248.62Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 183.37Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5199, 4201, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

446.2 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5199, 4201, 4322

Auto

93.2 22%

Teleop

243.7 57%

Endgame

93.8 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 687, 1538, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

543.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 687, 1538, 973

Auto

111.5 21%

Teleop

286.9 54%

Endgame

133.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 37%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.46 · Blue 2.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score446.2pts

Blue projected score543.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 37%, blue 38%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -97.8
Score range: 385–605
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 522 vs event baseline 340.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

749.5Season APEX843.6

93.2Auto111.5

243.7Teleop286.9

93.8Endgame133.7

62Consistency68

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	146
teleop	270	270
endgame	183	91
foul	0	15
total	0	522

Result

Final score

0 – 522

Prediction correct · off by 234 pts

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.