Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
704.86 – 462.85
95%5%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
668 – 552
Prediction correct · off by 63 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 983.4 ±8.7
Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 359.73Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 117.3Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 227.83Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 837.2 ±8.7
Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 166.83Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 162.54Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 133.48Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 4414, 8119, 3476
86
/ 100 compatProjected
704.9 pts
~2.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4414, 8119, 3476
Auto
163.1 23%
Teleop
366.2 52%
Endgame
169.0 24%
Strengths
- · 4414 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 9084, 7415, 3128
82
/ 100 compatProjected
462.9 pts
~0.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 9084, 7415, 3128
Auto
111.3 25%
Teleop
233.3 53%
Endgame
99.6 22%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 63%
Supercharged: 36%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.92 · Blue 0.92
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score704.9pts
Blue projected score462.9pts
Red win probability95%
Event bonus sample270alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 63%, blue 52%
Supercharged bonusred 36%, blue 28%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 242
- Score range
- 402–766
- Upset likelihood
- 5%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
983.4Season APEX837.2
163.1Auto111.3
366.2Teleop233.3
169Endgame99.6
54Consistency61
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 140 | 123 |
| teleop | 314 | 241 |
| endgame | 214 | 183 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 668 | 552 |
Result
Final score
668 – 552
Prediction correct · off by 63 pts
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.