FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

430.28 – 452.69

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

374 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 50 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 540.5 ±9.8

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 58.49Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 192.82Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 178.97Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 660.3 ±9.3

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 133.41Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 154.55Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 164.73Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1197, 1388, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

430.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1197, 1388, 2102

Auto

71.6 18%

Teleop

205.4 51%

Endgame

124.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5199, 5474, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

452.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5199, 5474, 4322

Auto

99.6 22%

Teleop

253.4 57%

Endgame

92.7 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.82 · Blue 2.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score430.3pts

Blue projected score452.7pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.4
Score range: 369–514
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 783 vs event baseline 337.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

540.5Season APEX660.3

71.6Auto99.6

205.4Teleop253.4

124.9Endgame92.7

145Consistency90

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	100
teleop	190	208
endgame	120	86
foul	5	15
total	374	409

Result

Final score

374 – 409

Prediction correct · off by 50 pts

Match videos

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