FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 99

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

289.59 – 305.72

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

370 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 60.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 624.6 ±9.3

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 90.01Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 100.63Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 98.95Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.6 ±9.8

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 194.16Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 38.23Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 73.33Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5199, 687, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

289.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5199, 687, 1148

Auto

61.1 22%

Teleop

183.5 65%

Endgame

37.8 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2102, 4999, 1160

/ 100 compat

Projected

305.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2102, 4999, 1160

Auto

45.8 15%

Teleop

166.4 56%

Endgame

84.6 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.72 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score289.6pts

Blue projected score305.7pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.1
Score range: 231–365
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 716 vs event baseline 325.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

624.6Season APEX472.6

61.1Auto45.8

183.5Teleop166.4

37.8Endgame84.6

79Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	53
teleop	208	188
endgame	100	90
foul	0	15
total	370	346

Result

Final score

370 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 60.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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