FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 98

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

227.2 – 235.76

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

165 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 73 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 351.7 ±10.4

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 84.14Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 64.87Rank 27Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 78.19Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433 ±10.4

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 74.98Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 38.56Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 122.22Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6695, 2984, 3749

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6695, 2984, 3749

Auto

41.3 18%

Teleop

124.4 53%

Endgame

67.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2485, 589, 4415

/ 100 compat

Projected

235.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2485, 589, 4415

Auto

29.2 12%

Teleop

144.9 62%

Endgame

60.6 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 31%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score227.2pts

Blue projected score235.8pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 31%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -8.6
Score range: 168–295
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 317 vs event baseline 327.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

351.7Season APEX433

41.3Auto29.2

124.4Teleop144.9

67.8Endgame60.6

76Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	47
teleop	104	46
endgame	33	59
foul	5	0
total	165	152

Result

Final score

165 – 152

Prediction missed · off by 73 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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