FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 97

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

415.03 – 140.79

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

405 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 649.7 ±9.8

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 114.47Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 143.32Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 157.24Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.7 ±9.8

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX -4.98Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 114.99Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 30.78Rank 60Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3647, 6995, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

415 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3647, 6995, 973

Auto

96.5 24%

Teleop

222.6 55%

Endgame

87.9 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10586, 4, 11024

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 10586, 4, 11024

Auto

9.8 7%

Teleop

78.3 58%

Endgame

46.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.95 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score415pts

Blue projected score140.8pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 274.2
Score range: 82–474
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 605 vs event baseline 327.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

649.7Season APEX376.7

96.5Auto9.8

222.6Teleop78.3

87.9Endgame46.3

147Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	93	26
teleop	222	104
endgame	90	70
foul	0	0
total	405	200

Result

Final score

405 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 34.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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