FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

395.07 – 383.73

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

428 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 78.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 785.3 ±8.7

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 153.48Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 110.2Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 131.39Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 594.3 ±9.8

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 157.9Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 119.05Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 106.78Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2659, 3512, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

395.1 pts

~2.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2659, 3512, 2429

Auto

67.1 17%

Teleop

210.3 54%

Endgame

109.2 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 696, 4123, 3128

/ 100 compat

Projected

383.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 696, 4123, 3128

Auto

89.2 24%

Teleop

191.0 52%

Endgame

88.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score395.1pts

Blue projected score383.7pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 11.3
Score range: 325–454
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 688 vs event baseline 326.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

785.3Season APEX594.3

67.1Auto89.2

210.3Teleop191

109.2Endgame88.5

98Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	84
teleop	244	123
endgame	106	53
foul	0	0
total	428	260

Result

Final score

428 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 78.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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