FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 94

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

198.74 – 293.73

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

342 – 295

Prediction missed · off by 72.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.7 ±10.4

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 52.85Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 38.08Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 107.81Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 475.6 ±9.8

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 33.44Rank 59Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 101.21Rank 19Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 159.08Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 812, 7157, 9452

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 812, 7157, 9452

Auto

12.0 6%

Teleop

101.5 54%

Endgame

75.5 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 968, 2637, 5474

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 968, 2637, 5474

Auto

55.0 19%

Teleop

134.6 47%

Endgame

95.6 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.36 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score198.7pts

Blue projected score293.7pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95
Score range: 140–353
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 637 vs event baseline 326.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.7Season APEX475.6

12Auto55

101.5Teleop134.6

75.5Endgame95.6

76Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	75
teleop	147	171
endgame	120	49
foul	10	0
total	342	295

Result

Final score

342 – 295

Prediction missed · off by 72.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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