FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

255.49 – 333.76

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

326 – 412

Prediction correct · off by 74.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468.1 ±9.8

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 118.12Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 64.1Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 73.27Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 634.6 ±9.3

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 60.9Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 141.13Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 131.73Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4201, 1197, 6220

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4201, 1197, 6220

Auto

71.6 30%

Teleop

123.8 52%

Endgame

44.8 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4419, 294, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

333.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4419, 294, 9084

Auto

82.8 26%

Teleop

186.9 58%

Endgame

54.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score255.5pts

Blue projected score333.8pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 31%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.3
Score range: 196–393
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 738 vs event baseline 325.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468.1Season APEX634.6

71.6Auto82.8

123.8Teleop186.9

44.8Endgame54.3

88Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	59
teleop	126	204
endgame	95	144
foul	35	5
total	326	412

Result

Final score

326 – 412

Prediction correct · off by 74.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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