FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 92

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.1 – 531.96

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

154 – 499

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.6 ±10.4

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 27.21Rank 34Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 17.75Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 90.14Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 671 ±9.8

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 62.88Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 106.84Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 362.24Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3925, 4079, 5137

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3925, 4079, 5137

Auto

37.8 28%

Teleop

53.7 40%

Endgame

42.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7042, 3408, 4414

/ 100 compat

Projected

532 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7042, 3408, 4414

Auto

121.7 23%

Teleop

284.2 54%

Endgame

116.8 22%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.79 · Blue 3.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score135.1pts

Blue projected score532pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 32%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -396.9
Score range: 76–591
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 653 vs event baseline 325.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.6Season APEX671

37.8Auto121.7

53.7Teleop284.2

42.9Endgame116.8

143Consistency129

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	118
teleop	74	292
endgame	48	89
foul	0	0
total	154	499

Result

Final score

154 – 499

Prediction correct · off by 25.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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