FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

290.91 – 227.11

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

53 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 144.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 523.1 ±9.8

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 91Rank 27Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 23.16Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 176.75Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311 ±10.4

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 52.93Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 122.42Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 51.76Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2984, 10586, 973

/ 100 compat

Projected

290.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2984, 10586, 973

Auto

76.8 27%

Teleop

138.8 48%

Endgame

72.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5805, 2710, 4999

/ 100 compat

Projected

227.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5805, 2710, 4999

Auto

30.6 14%

Teleop

122.9 57%

Endgame

60.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.21 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score290.9pts

Blue projected score227.1pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.8
Score range: 168–350
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 229 vs event baseline 326.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

523.1Season APEX311

76.8Auto30.6

138.8Teleop122.9

72.5Endgame60.5

117Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	42
teleop	16	96
endgame	19	23
foul	0	15
total	53	176

Result

Final score

53 – 176

Prediction missed · off by 144.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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