FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.38 – 182.38

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 50 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.5 ±9.8

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX -Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX -Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX -Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.3 ±10.4

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX -Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX -Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX -Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9084, 2485, 5137

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9084, 2485, 5137

Auto

54.7 30%

Teleop

91.2 50%

Endgame

36.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3309, 2404, 1160

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3309, 2404, 1160

Auto

54.7 30%

Teleop

91.2 50%

Endgame

36.5 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.85 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score182.4pts

Blue projected score182.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 116–248
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 366 vs event baseline 364.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.5Season APEX328.3

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	30
teleop	146	42
endgame	41	61
foul	5	0
total	233	133

Result

Final score

233 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 50 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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