FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 89

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

342.35 – 362.75

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

249 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 535.6 ±9.8

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 135.54Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 89.24Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 117.57Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 515.2 ±9.8

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 192.56Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 23.19Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 147Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9408, 3749, 3647

/ 100 compat

Projected

342.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9408, 3749, 3647

Auto

44.8 13%

Teleop

213.0 64%

Endgame

74.1 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2102, 3309, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

362.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2102, 3309, 6995

Auto

75.8 22%

Teleop

179.0 51%

Endgame

94.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 26%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.72 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score342.3pts

Blue projected score362.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 70%

Supercharged bonusred 26%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -20.4
Score range: 283–422
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 603 vs event baseline 326.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

535.6Season APEX515.2

44.8Auto75.8

213Teleop179

74.1Endgame94.1

119Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	87
teleop	119	169
endgame	58	98
foul	10	0
total	249	354

Result

Final score

249 – 354

Prediction correct · off by 51.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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