FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 88

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

295.36 – 350.65

33%67%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

361 – 517

Prediction correct · off by 116 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 423.6 ±10.4

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 71.49Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 110.53Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 113.34Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 742.7 ±9.3

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 82.12Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 85.58Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 182.95Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4738, 2584, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

295.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4738, 2584, 4123

Auto

57.7 20%

Teleop

148.3 52%

Endgame

80.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 687, 3128, 1388

/ 100 compat

Projected

350.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 687, 3128, 1388

Auto

64.7 20%

Teleop

175.3 54%

Endgame

86.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.7 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score295.4pts

Blue projected score350.7pts

Red win probability33%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55.3
Score range: 236–410
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 878 vs event baseline 325.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

423.6Season APEX742.7

57.7Auto64.7

148.3Teleop175.3

80.3Endgame86.3

100Consistency112

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	101
teleop	164	293
endgame	111	108
foul	5	15
total	361	517

Result

Final score

361 – 517

Prediction correct · off by 116 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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