FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

324.75 – 367.35

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

293 – 523

Prediction correct · off by 93.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 518.9 ±9.8

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 113.41Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 123.95Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 87.39Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 584.9 ±9.8

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 146.67Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 79.57Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 141.11Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8119, 4, 6695

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8119, 4, 6695

Auto

37.4 11%

Teleop

189.7 58%

Endgame

101.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 696, 5199, 5474

/ 100 compat

Projected

367.4 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 696, 5199, 5474

Auto

90.0 25%

Teleop

193.0 53%

Endgame

81.1 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.75 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score324.8pts

Blue projected score367.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 40%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.6
Score range: 267–425
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 816 vs event baseline 324.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

518.9Season APEX584.9

37.4Auto90

189.7Teleop193

101.7Endgame81.1

184Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	5	100
teleop	165	305
endgame	118	108
foul	5	10
total	293	523

Result

Final score

293 – 523

Prediction correct · off by 93.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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