FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

136.23 – 360.73

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

179 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 415.1 ±10.4

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 29.48Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 73.85Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 32.9Rank 59Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 672.5 ±9.3

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 98.85Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 127.72Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 134.16Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 589, 1160, 968

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.2 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 589, 1160, 968

Auto

13.0 10%

Teleop

76.3 60%

Endgame

37.5 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5136, 2429, 294

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.7 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5136, 2429, 294

Auto

53.5 15%

Teleop

204.7 57%

Endgame

98.5 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.79 · Blue 3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score136.2pts

Blue projected score360.7pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -224.5
Score range: 78–419
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 570 vs event baseline 324.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

415.1Season APEX672.5

13Auto53.5

76.3Teleop204.7

37.5Endgame98.5

118Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	67
teleop	101	232
endgame	54	92
foul	0	0
total	179	391

Result

Final score

179 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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