FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

269.69 – 330.76

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

272 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 403.9 ±10.4

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 111.52Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 91.02Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 67.15Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700.2 ±9.3

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 59.82Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 149.44Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 121.5Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9452, 5137, 1197

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9452, 5137, 1197

Auto

48.9 19%

Teleop

133.1 52%

Endgame

73.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7042, 2659, 7415

/ 100 compat

Projected

330.8 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7042, 2659, 7415

Auto

107.1 32%

Teleop

154.1 46%

Endgame

70.9 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 27%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.48 · Blue 2.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score269.7pts

Blue projected score330.8pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 27%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.1
Score range: 212–389
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 642 vs event baseline 324.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

403.9Season APEX700.2

48.9Auto107.1

133.1Teleop154.1

73.7Endgame70.9

89Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	74
teleop	158	150
endgame	55	96
foul	0	50
total	272	370

Result

Final score

272 – 370

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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