FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

199.18 – 584.75

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

282 – 627

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335 ±10.4

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 58.63Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 43.15Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 97.4Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 816 ±9.3

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 118.66Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 354.01Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 112.08Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4419, 812, 3408

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.2 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4419, 812, 3408

Auto

34.9 19%

Teleop

114.5 63%

Endgame

31.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4415, 4414, 3512

/ 100 compat

Projected

584.8 pts

~3.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4415, 4414, 3512

Auto

117.4 20%

Teleop

297.6 51%

Endgame

166.4 29%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.93 · Blue 3.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score199.2pts

Blue projected score584.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 68%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 41%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -385.6
Score range: 141–643
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 909 vs event baseline 323.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335Season APEX816

34.9Auto117.4

114.5Teleop297.6

31Endgame166.4

137Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	99
teleop	113	376
endgame	125	147
foul	5	5
total	282	627

Result

Final score

282 – 627

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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