FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

457.33 – 573.83

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

238 – 567

Prediction correct · off by 113.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 586 ±9.3

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 179.64Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 121.19Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 156.5Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 821.3 ±8.7

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 107.56Rank 19Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 187.47Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 278.8Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4322, 1148, 9084

/ 100 compat

Projected

457.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4322, 1148, 9084

Auto

75.7 17%

Teleop

272.8 62%

Endgame

94.8 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2637, 3255, 1538

/ 100 compat

Projected

573.8 pts

~2.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2637, 3255, 1538

Auto

93.5 17%

Teleop

327.7 58%

Endgame

141.5 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 30%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.27 · Blue 2.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score457.3pts

Blue projected score573.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 30%, blue 44%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.5
Score range: 399–632
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 805 vs event baseline 322.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

586Season APEX821.3

75.7Auto93.5

272.8Teleop327.7

94.8Endgame141.5

106Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	76
teleop	140	259
endgame	14	197
foul	15	35
total	238	567

Result

Final score

238 – 567

Prediction correct · off by 113.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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