FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

265.98 – 266.06

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

137 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 99 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 429.7 ±9.8

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 38.94Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 88.75Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 138.29Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 541.8 ±9.8

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 205.16Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX 9Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 51.9Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4079, 2485, 4201

/ 100 compat

Projected

266 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4079, 2485, 4201

Auto

49.0 19%

Teleop

140.5 54%

Endgame

68.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3476, 2658, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.1 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3476, 2658, 7157

Auto

99.1 39%

Teleop

103.1 41%

Endgame

50.4 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.82 · Blue 1.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score266pts

Blue projected score266.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 26%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.1
Score range: 208–324
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 334 vs event baseline 324.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

429.7Season APEX541.8

49Auto99.1

140.5Teleop103.1

68.3Endgame50.4

84Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	107
teleop	46	26
endgame	44	64
foul	0	0
total	137	197

Result

Final score

137 – 197

Prediction correct · off by 99 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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