FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 80

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

373.83 – 303.45

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

461 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.8 ±9.3

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 109.6Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3128The Aluminum Narwhals

A+

Season APEX 308.7Event APEX 76.82Rank 32Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 187.41Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.5 ±10.4

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 78.15Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 113Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 112.3Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4, 3128, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

373.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4, 3128, 2102

Auto

45.5 13%

Teleop

215.5 64%

Endgame

76.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6695, 2710, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

303.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6695, 2710, 4123

Auto

48.2 16%

Teleop

170.7 58%

Endgame

77.2 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score373.8pts

Blue projected score303.5pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 74%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.4
Score range: 245–432
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 852 vs event baseline 323.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.8Season APEX374.5

45.5Auto48.2

215.5Teleop170.7

76.8Endgame77.2

141Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	103
teleop	220	210
endgame	163	78
foul	0	0
total	461	391

Result

Final score

461 – 391

Prediction correct · off by 87.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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