FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 79

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

264 – 363.48

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 110.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 645.4 ±9.3

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX 138.42Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 29.84Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 95.74Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.4 ±10.4

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 116.62Rank 27Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 116.24Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 130.62Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 294, 10586, 5199

/ 100 compat

Projected

264 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 294, 10586, 5199

Auto

73.8 28%

Teleop

155.8 58%

Endgame

37.1 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2984, 5136, 2584

/ 100 compat

Projected

363.5 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2984, 5136, 2584

Auto

54.1 15%

Teleop

191.5 53%

Endgame

115.9 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.34 · Blue 2.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score264pts

Blue projected score363.5pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 35%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -99.5
Score range: 205–422
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 325.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

645.4Season APEX420.4

73.8Auto54.1

155.8Teleop191.5

37.1Endgame115.9

125Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	42
teleop	110	104
endgame	19	61
foul	5	10
total	189	217

Result

Final score

189 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 110.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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