FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

255.8 – 353.88

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

427 – 349

Prediction missed · off by 88 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 573.2 ±9.8

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 60.96Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 159.55Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 35.29Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 521.6 ±9.8

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 127.85Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 77.91Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 148.12Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5137, 973, 5805

/ 100 compat

Projected

255.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5137, 973, 5805

Auto

47.9 19%

Teleop

137.7 54%

Endgame

69.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2429, 1197, 6995

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.9 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2429, 1197, 6995

Auto

85.0 26%

Teleop

164.1 50%

Endgame

82.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.33 · Blue 2.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score255.8pts

Blue projected score353.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -98.1
Score range: 198–412
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 776 vs event baseline 324.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

573.2Season APEX521.6

47.9Auto85

137.7Teleop164.1

69.1Endgame82

172Consistency162

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	90	73
teleop	189	171
endgame	123	90
foul	25	15
total	427	349

Result

Final score

427 – 349

Prediction missed · off by 88 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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