FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

223.67 – 194.34

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 104 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 525.4 ±9.8

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 51.34Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 64.57Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 107.76Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384.9 ±10.4

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 63.58Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

812The Midnight Mechanics

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 26.42Rank 38Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 104.34Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4419, 1160, 7415

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4419, 1160, 7415

Auto

66.9 32%

Teleop

119.1 56%

Endgame

25.9 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4738, 812, 3647

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4738, 812, 3647

Auto

15.6 8%

Teleop

123.3 65%

Endgame

51.5 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.98 · Blue 1.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score223.7pts

Blue projected score194.3pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 29.3
Score range: 136–282
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 626 vs event baseline 324.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

525.4Season APEX384.9

66.9Auto15.6

119.1Teleop123.3

25.9Endgame51.5

50Consistency127

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	61	77
teleop	132	152
endgame	107	82
foul	15	0
total	315	311

Result

Final score

315 – 311

Prediction correct · off by 104 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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