FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 76

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

254.89 – 231.18

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

323 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.4 ±10.4

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 68.51Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 182.95Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2404Team NEY Techs (TNT)

Season APEX 96.7Event APEX 3.43Rank 50Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.5 ±10.4

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 97.28Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 103.85Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

968RAWC (Robotics Alliance Of West Covina)

Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 30.05Rank 59Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6220, 1388, 2404

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6220, 1388, 2404

Auto

60.0 25%

Teleop

92.8 39%

Endgame

84.1 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3749, 3408, 968

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3749, 3408, 968

Auto

29.1 13%

Teleop

134.8 62%

Endgame

54.4 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 63%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score254.9pts

Blue projected score231.2pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 63%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.7
Score range: 172–314
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 493 vs event baseline 325.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.4Season APEX312.5

60Auto29.1

92.8Teleop134.8

84.1Endgame54.4

182Consistency131

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	34
teleop	184	77
endgame	85	59
foul	0	0
total	323	170

Result

Final score

323 – 170

Prediction correct · off by 64.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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