FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

398.15 – 440.85

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

447 – 595

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603 ±9.8

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 106.09Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 148.71Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 143.35Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 660.9 ±9.3

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 142.59Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 259.7Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 38.56Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4415, 2659, 5474

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4415, 2659, 5474

Auto

60.9 15%

Teleop

217.0 54%

Endgame

125.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9084, 1538, 7042

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.9 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9084, 1538, 7042

Auto

89.1 20%

Teleop

262.2 60%

Endgame

86.7 20%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 70%

Supercharged: 42%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.88 · Blue 2.23

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score398.2pts

Blue projected score440.9pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 70%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 42%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.7
Score range: 340–499
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1042 vs event baseline 322.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603Season APEX660.9

60.9Auto89.1

217Teleop262.2

125Endgame86.7

103Consistency130

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	112
teleop	224	341
endgame	131	137
foul	0	5
total	447	595

Result

Final score

447 – 595

Prediction correct · off by 101.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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