FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

310.01 – 561.08

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

421 – 481

Prediction correct · off by 95.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 688.8 ±9.3

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX -8.49Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 176.64Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 141.86Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 836 ±9.3

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 57.14Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 354Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 149.94Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2658, 3255, 599

/ 100 compat

Projected

310 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2658, 3255, 599

Auto

77.7 26%

Teleop

162.3 54%

Endgame

58.7 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7157, 4414, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

561.1 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7157, 4414, 9408

Auto

108.5 20%

Teleop

307.7 57%

Endgame

123.7 23%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score310pts

Blue projected score561.1pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 39%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -251.1
Score range: 252–619
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 902 vs event baseline 321.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

688.8Season APEX836

77.7Auto108.5

162.3Teleop307.7

58.7Endgame123.7

121Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	138	94
teleop	205	244
endgame	73	138
foul	5	5
total	421	481

Result

Final score

421 – 481

Prediction correct · off by 95.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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