FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

341.64 – 320.91

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

280 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 549.9 ±9.3

8119TigerBotics

Season APEX 239.4Event APEX 112.21Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 183.29Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 46.14Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 484.3 ±9.8

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 47.05Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 149.24Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 124.62Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8119, 4322, 3309

/ 100 compat

Projected

341.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 8119, 4322, 3309

Auto

68.4 20%

Teleop

166.1 49%

Endgame

106.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1138, 4201, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

320.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1138, 4201, 1148

Auto

20.9 7%

Teleop

175.6 58%

Endgame

105.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.97 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score341.6pts

Blue projected score320.9pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 30%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.7
Score range: 263–400
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 548 vs event baseline 321.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

549.9Season APEX484.3

68.4Auto20.9

166.1Teleop175.6

106.7Endgame105.4

161Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	63
teleop	149	168
endgame	85	37
foul	0	0
total	280	268

Result

Final score

280 – 268

Prediction correct · off by 57.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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