FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

179.4 – 497.97

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

197 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 140.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 459.5 ±9.8

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 118.11Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 50.6Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 10.69Rank 34Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 656 ±9.3

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 231.26Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 141.87Rank 19Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2485Overclocked

Season APEX 106.1Event APEX 124.84Rank 52Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3512, 4999, 3925

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3512, 4999, 3925

Auto

22.4 13%

Teleop

103.1 60%

Endgame

46.3 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3476, 2637, 2485

/ 100 compat

Projected

498 pts

~2.8 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3476, 2637, 2485

Auto

104.7 21%

Teleop

270.3 54%

Endgame

121.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 29%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score179.4pts

Blue projected score498pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 29%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -318.6
Score range: 121–556
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 431 vs event baseline 323.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

459.5Season APEX656

22.4Auto104.7

103.1Teleop270.3

46.3Endgame121.2

76Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	101
teleop	81	86
endgame	61	37
foul	0	10
total	197	234

Result

Final score

197 – 234

Prediction correct · off by 140.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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