FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

301.44 – 151.15

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 443 ±9.8

4079Quantum Leap

Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 45.92Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 104.56Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 150.96Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 497.4 ±9.8

589Falkon Robotics

Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 26.49Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 22.67Rank 60Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 101.99Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4079, 687, 696

/ 100 compat

Projected

301.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4079, 687, 696

Auto

83.7 29%

Teleop

135.0 46%

Endgame

74.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 589, 11024, 9452

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 589, 11024, 9452

Auto

8.1 6%

Teleop

92.6 66%

Endgame

38.8 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.55 · Blue 0.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score301.4pts

Blue projected score151.1pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 18%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 150.3
Score range: 93–359
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 399 vs event baseline 325.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

443Season APEX497.4

83.7Auto8.1

135Teleop92.6

74.2Endgame38.8

106Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	92	27
teleop	62	105
endgame	63	45
foul	5	0
total	222	177

Result

Final score

222 – 177

Prediction correct · off by 52.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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