FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

185.75 – 185.75

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

512 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 234.8 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 873 ±8.7

294Beach Cities Robotics

Season APEX 290.9Event APEX -Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX -Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX -Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 472.4 ±9.8

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX -Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX -Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX -Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 294, 3512, 3476

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.8 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 294, 3512, 3476

Auto

55.7 30%

Teleop

92.9 50%

Endgame

37.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2429, 5474, 10586

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2429, 5474, 10586

Auto

55.7 30%

Teleop

92.9 50%

Endgame

37.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 39%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.94

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score185.8pts

Blue projected score185.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 39%, blue 29%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 119–253
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 841 vs event baseline 371.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

873Season APEX472.4

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	123	56
teleop	263	182
endgame	121	91
foul	5	0
total	512	329

Result

Final score

512 – 329

Prediction correct · off by 234.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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