FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

423.69 – 370.44

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

627 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 116.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 592.2 ±9.8

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 229.93Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5136MechaPirates

Season APEX 152.1Event APEX 104.81Rank 29Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 88.95Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 475.4 ±9.8

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 136.79Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9084Octobots

Season APEX 244.2Event APEX 128.64Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 105.01Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1538, 5136, 4123

/ 100 compat

Projected

423.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1538, 5136, 4123

Auto

64.4 16%

Teleop

260.1 63%

Endgame

87.8 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2584, 9084, 3749

/ 100 compat

Projected

370.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2584, 9084, 3749

Auto

68.7 19%

Teleop

222.0 61%

Endgame

71.8 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.37 · Blue 1.53

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score423.7pts

Blue projected score370.4pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.3
Score range: 312–482
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1027 vs event baseline 323.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

592.2Season APEX475.4

64.4Auto68.7

260.1Teleop222

87.8Endgame71.8

140Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	80
teleop	350	222
endgame	210	98
foul	5	0
total	627	400

Result

Final score

627 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 116.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.