FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

293.28 – 258.85

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

314 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 476.4 ±9.8

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX -9.1Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 109.45Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 192.93Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 491.9 ±9.8

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 164.91Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 72.59Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10586Unearthed

Season APEX 78.8Event APEX 21.35Rank 58Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2658, 4415, 2102

/ 100 compat

Projected

293.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2658, 4415, 2102

Auto

64.5 23%

Teleop

119.3 42%

Endgame

99.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2659, 6220, 10586

/ 100 compat

Projected

258.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2659, 6220, 10586

Auto

78.6 29%

Teleop

148.6 55%

Endgame

41.8 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 66%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score293.3pts

Blue projected score258.9pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 66%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.4
Score range: 201–351
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 551 vs event baseline 324.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

476.4Season APEX491.9

64.5Auto78.6

119.3Teleop148.6

99.6Endgame41.8

127Consistency117

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	59
teleop	160	122
endgame	64	56
foul	20	0
total	314	237

Result

Final score

314 – 237

Prediction correct · off by 21.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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