FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

360.68 – 345.02

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

407 – 474

Prediction missed · off by 87.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 515.1 ±10.4

6995NOMAD

Season APEX 191.6Event APEX 153.83Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7042Poly Rabbotics

Season APEX 117.1Event APEX 28.89Rank 26Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 177.96Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 587.8 ±9.3

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 43.32Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4201The Vitruvian Bots

Season APEX 253.3Event APEX 128.31Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4322Clockwork

Season APEX 220.5Event APEX 173.39Rank 17Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6995, 7042, 1388

/ 100 compat

Projected

360.7 pts

~2.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6995, 7042, 1388

Auto

64.6 19%

Teleop

158.3 48%

Endgame

109.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7157, 4201, 4322

/ 100 compat

Projected

345 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7157, 4201, 4322

Auto

34.4 10%

Teleop

170.0 51%

Endgame

129.2 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 72%

Supercharged: 34%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.18 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score360.7pts

Blue projected score345pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 72%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 34%, blue 34%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.7
Score range: 287–419
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 881 vs event baseline 322.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

515.1Season APEX587.8

64.6Auto34.4

158.3Teleop170

109.3Endgame129.2

182Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	110	101
teleop	179	258
endgame	118	75
foul	0	40
total	407	474

Result

Final score

407 – 474

Prediction missed · off by 87.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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