Qualification · Qualification 64
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
269.12 – 243.19
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
238 – 294
Prediction missed · off by 41 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 628 ±9.3
Season APEX 257Event APEX 120.04Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 107.9Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 86.7Event APEX 41.18Rank 59Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 554 ±9.8
Season APEX 70.3Event APEX 42.51Rank 47Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 186.8Event APEX 27.41Rank 56Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 173.27Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3512, 7415, 968
59
/ 100 compatProjected
269.1 pts
~1.9 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 3512, 7415, 968
Auto
67.7 27%
Teleop
129.1 52%
Endgame
52.0 21%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 4079, 589, 3255
57
/ 100 compatProjected
243.2 pts
~1.6 RP (district-cmp)
Teams: 4079, 589, 3255
Auto
44.4 20%
Teleop
95.0 43%
Endgame
83.3 37%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 48%
Supercharged: 24%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.9 · Blue 1.63
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict Championship
Red projected score269.1pts
Blue projected score243.2pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample270alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 48%, blue 57%
Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 20%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 25.9
- Score range
- 185–327
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-16
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
628Season APEX554
67.7Auto44.4
129.1Teleop95
52Endgame83.3
62Consistency156
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 72 | 76 |
| teleop | 66 | 158 |
| endgame | 100 | 60 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 238 | 294 |
Result
Final score
238 – 294
Prediction missed · off by 41 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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