FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

416.34 – 237.98

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

463 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 667.7 ±9.3

4414HighTide

Season APEX 418.9Event APEX 343.98Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11024HYPERNOVA

Season APEX 151.4Event APEX 27.56Rank 60Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4999Momentum

Season APEX 97.4Event APEX 44.8Rank 51Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.5 ±10.4

4Team 4 ELEMENT

Season APEX 146.5Event APEX 104.1Rank 35Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3309Friarbots

Season APEX 90Event APEX 29.85Rank 53Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2710JetStream

Season APEX 101Event APEX 104.03Rank 54Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4414, 11024, 4999

/ 100 compat

Projected

416.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4414, 11024, 4999

Auto

100.3 24%

Teleop

226.6 54%

Endgame

96.5 23%

Strengths

· 4414 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4, 3309, 2710

/ 100 compat

Projected

238 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4, 3309, 2710

Auto

48.5 21%

Teleop

148.7 63%

Endgame

38.7 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.61 · Blue 1.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score416.3pts

Blue projected score238pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 69%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 178.4
Score range: 180–474
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 795 vs event baseline 321.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

667.7Season APEX337.5

100.3Auto48.5

226.6Teleop148.7

96.5Endgame38.7

120Consistency156

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	105	52
teleop	257	167
endgame	81	93
foul	20	20
total	463	332

Result

Final score

463 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 70.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.