FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

357.49 – 429.19

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

385 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 55.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 608.8 ±9.8

1160Titanium Robotics

Season APEX 141.6Event APEX 56.53Rank 41Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5474Clairemonster

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 153.55Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9408Warren Warbots

A+

Season APEX 303.1Event APEX 147.41Rank 5Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 572.7 ±9.8

973Greybots

A+

Season APEX 316.4Event APEX 178.4Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 121.48Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1148Harvard Westlake Robotics

Season APEX 121.3Event APEX 129.31Rank 48Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1160, 5474, 9408

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1160, 5474, 9408

Auto

45.9 13%

Teleop

232.5 67%

Endgame

68.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 973, 3408, 1148

/ 100 compat

Projected

429.2 pts

~2.3 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 973, 3408, 1148

Auto

58.6 14%

Teleop

258.6 63%

Endgame

95.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 35%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.62 · Blue 2.34

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score357.5pts

Blue projected score429.2pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 35%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.7
Score range: 299–487
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 731 vs event baseline 320.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

608.8Season APEX572.7

45.9Auto58.6

232.5Teleop258.6

68.2Endgame95.6

91Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	87
teleop	212	199
endgame	110	60
foul	20	0
total	385	346

Result

Final score

385 – 346

Prediction missed · off by 55.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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