FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

415.79 – 269.66

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

373 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 575.3 ±9.8

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 160.42Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3476Code Orange

A+

Season APEX 325.1Event APEX 237.53Rank 3Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3925Ventura Robotics

Season APEX 105.1Event APEX 17.84Rank 34Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 499.4 ±9.8

9452LHS Steel Stingers

Season APEX 159.2Event APEX 117.85Rank 31Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5805SMbly Required

Season APEX 112.6Event APEX 44.11Rank 45Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

687The Nerd Herd

Season APEX 227.6Event APEX 107.7Rank 24Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 696, 3476, 3925

/ 100 compat

Projected

415.8 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 696, 3476, 3925

Auto

112.3 28%

Teleop

200.5 50%

Endgame

88.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9452, 5805, 687

/ 100 compat

Projected

269.7 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 9452, 5805, 687

Auto

29.2 11%

Teleop

161.5 61%

Endgame

76.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 33%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 2.61 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score415.8pts

Blue projected score269.7pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 33%, blue 24%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 146.1
Score range: 212–474
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 620 vs event baseline 320.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

575.3Season APEX499.4

112.3Auto29.2

200.5Teleop161.5

88.6Endgame76.2

92Consistency74

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	106	18
teleop	166	123
endgame	86	81
foul	15	25
total	373	247

Result

Final score

373 – 247

Prediction correct · off by 32.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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