FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

266.4 – 261.97

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

337 – 362

Prediction missed · off by 85.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 434.6 ±9.8

6220The Golden Griffins

Season APEX 114.3Event APEX 67.5Rank 46Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 88.06Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2429The Blockheads

Season APEX 229.5Event APEX 110.84Rank 36Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 560.3 ±9.8

5199Robot Dolphins From Outer Space

Season APEX 275.7Event APEX 85.11Rank 22Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2584Flame of The West

Season APEX 140.4Event APEX 117.25Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5137Iron Kodiaks

Season APEX 144.2Event APEX 59.61Rank 37Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6220, 3749, 2429

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6220, 3749, 2429

Auto

58.6 22%

Teleop

137.2 51%

Endgame

73.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5199, 2584, 5137

/ 100 compat

Projected

262 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 5199, 2584, 5137

Auto

82.8 30%

Teleop

139.3 51%

Endgame

51.7 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.95

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score266.4pts

Blue projected score262pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 62%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.4
Score range: 204–324
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 699 vs event baseline 319.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

434.6Season APEX560.3

58.6Auto82.8

137.2Teleop139.3

73.1Endgame51.7

123Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	72
teleop	210	228
endgame	63	62
foul	0	0
total	337	362

Result

Final score

337 – 362

Prediction missed · off by 85.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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