FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

194.61 – 355.95

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

201 – 484

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 358.7 ±10.4

3408cyberCubs

Season APEX 135Event APEX 98.8Rank 30Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 62.64Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 33.17Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 520.2 ±9.8

7415Jaguar Robotics Sponsored By Feit Electric

Season APEX 284.3Event APEX 167.25Rank 8Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

696Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 145.1Event APEX 125.31Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3749Team Optix

Season APEX 90.8Event APEX 63.39Rank 57Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3408, 1138, 7157

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.6 pts

~1.1 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3408, 1138, 7157

Auto

34.9 20%

Teleop

74.2 43%

Endgame

63.2 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7415, 696, 3749

/ 100 compat

Projected

356 pts

~2.6 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7415, 696, 3749

Auto

97.5 28%

Teleop

160.7 47%

Endgame

84.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score194.6pts

Blue projected score356pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 28%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -161.3
Score range: 133–418
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 685 vs event baseline 343.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

358.7Season APEX520.2

34.9Auto97.5

74.2Teleop160.7

63.2Endgame84.5

135Consistency88

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	113
teleop	88	276
endgame	75	90
foul	20	5
total	201	484

Result

Final score

201 – 484

Prediction correct · off by 67.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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