FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

397.66 – 398.74

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 149 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 367.5 ±10.4

4415EPIC Robotz

Season APEX 140.1Event APEX 150.35Rank 21Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2984Vikings Robotics

Season APEX 127.9Event APEX 164.93Rank 27Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4419Team Rewind

Season APEX 99.5Event APEX 82.38Rank 40Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 554 ±9.8

7157μBotics

Season APEX 114Event APEX 42.64Rank 42Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2102Team Paradox

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 190.95Rank 18Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1388Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 206.4Event APEX 165.15Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4415, 2984, 4419

/ 100 compat

Projected

397.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 4415, 2984, 4419

Auto

54.8 14%

Teleop

207.0 52%

Endgame

138.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7157, 2102, 1388

/ 100 compat

Projected

398.7 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 7157, 2102, 1388

Auto

72.9 20%

Teleop

185.6 50%

Endgame

114.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.91 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score397.7pts

Blue projected score398.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.1
Score range: 340–457
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 631 vs event baseline 320.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

367.5Season APEX554

54.8Auto72.9

207Teleop185.6

138.4Endgame114.1

101Consistency204

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	40
teleop	54	179
endgame	45	186
foul	15	60
total	166	465

Result

Final score

166 – 465

Prediction correct · off by 149 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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