FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

205.86 – 239.59

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 468 ±9.8

2658Σ-Motion

Season APEX 102.7Event APEX -2.31Rank 39Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4123Tribe Robotics

Season APEX 140.5Event APEX 84.05Rank 28Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2637Phantom Catz

Season APEX 224.8Event APEX 124.12Rank 19Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 351.9 ±10.4

3647Millennium Falcons

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 125.3Rank 44Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1197TorBots

Season APEX 100.5Event APEX 75.14Rank 55Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1138Eagle Engineering

Season APEX 109.7Event APEX 39.15Rank 49Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2658, 4123, 2637

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 2658, 4123, 2637

Auto

77.3 41%

Teleop

109.9 58%

Endgame

3.5 2%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3647, 1197, 1138

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 3647, 1197, 1138

Auto

48.7 22%

Teleop

95.1 42%

Endgame

81.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.69 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score205.9pts

Blue projected score239.6pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -33.7
Score range: 148–298
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 405 vs event baseline 322.1.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

468Season APEX351.9

77.3Auto48.7

109.9Teleop95.1

3.5Endgame81.2

114Consistency161

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	36
teleop	81	50
endgame	74	48
foul	0	50
total	221	184

Result

Final score

221 – 184

Prediction missed · off by 35.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

Watch right here, no need to leave the page.