FIRST California Southern State Championship presented by Qualcomm

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

284.31 – 454.64

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 585

Prediction correct · off by 112.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 532.7 ±9.8

6695GalvaKnights

Season APEX 133Event APEX 79.01Rank 25Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4738Patribots

Season APEX 142.7Event APEX 68.87Rank 43Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3512Spartatroniks

Season APEX 257Event APEX 136.43Rank 16Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 887.6 ±8.7

1538The Holy Cows

A+

Season APEX 299.6Event APEX 213.39Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

599The Robodox

Season APEX 289.2Event APEX 114.66Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2659RoboWarriors

A+

Season APEX 298.8Event APEX 126.59Rank 9Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6695, 4738, 3512

/ 100 compat

Projected

284.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 6695, 4738, 3512

Auto

23.5 8%

Teleop

162.8 56%

Endgame

103.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1538, 599, 2659

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.6 pts

~3.0 RP (district-cmp)

Teams: 1538, 599, 2659

Auto

101.3 22%

Teleop

267.0 59%

Endgame

83.7 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 67%

Supercharged: 32%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district-cmp)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict Championship

Red projected score284.3pts

Blue projected score454.6pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample270alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 67%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 32%, blue 49%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Deeper field: bonus rates typically drop vs. regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -170.3
Score range: 226–513
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 774 vs event baseline 320.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

532.7Season APEX887.6

23.5Auto101.3

162.8Teleop267

103.8Endgame83.7

129Consistency89

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	103
teleop	110	417
endgame	44	65
foul	0	0
total	189	585

Result

Final score

189 – 585

Prediction correct · off by 112.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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